The American Gaming Association (AGA) announced new research, the findings of which suggest that the majority of US sports bettors are all for seeing prediction markets regulated in line with existing sportsbook regulation.
AGA doubles down in a new survey that prediction markets are a form of sports betting
In other words, the common perception amongst sports bettors is that prediction markets are indeed a form of gambling, even though platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt have been successful in arguing against this.
Yet, the new research successfully captures public sentiment, with 85% of respondents arguing that prediction markets are more akin to gambling than financial instruments. Only 6% of respondents agreed with the latter statement.
As to AGA, President and CEO Bill Miller had this to say: "This research has made it clear: Americans know a sports bet when they see one—and they expect prediction markets offering sports event contracts to be held to the same rules and consumer safeguards as every other state-regulated sportsbook."
Then, 80% of respondents said that they believed this vertical needs to be regulated the same way as sportsbooks are – something that prediction platforms have fiercely objected to. 65% of the respondents agreed that prediction markets can be supervised by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Furthermore, 84% of Americans said that such contracts ought to only be offered by state-licensed sportsbooks, with 69% of American sports gamblers also agreeing with this statement.
The public opinion clearly favors sportsbook-like regulation for prediction markets
In other words, AGA’s research indicates that there is a prevalent opinion among the general public and sports gamblers, with the majority agreeing that prediction contracts need to be subject to stiffer oversight.
70% of respondents said that prediction platforms offering sports event contracts are not acting in good faith, i.e., they are exploiting legal loopholes to offer the same product. Despite all of this, prediction markets have a strong legal foothold.
Then again, they are not the only platforms under assault in the United States, with sweepstakes casinos facing one ban after the next in the country.
"This underscores the need for the CFTC to enforce and uphold its own regulations that prohibit gaming contracts, and for Congress to use its oversight power to ensure prediction markets are not used as a backdoor for gaming," Miller concluded.
